|
|
Feasibility
Study Appendix
Regional
Economic Impact (estimated)
Regional
Economic Impact of the Red Lake Bog State Park (estimated)
The following table reflects an overnight tourist stay of one night. This includes the
effect of direct, indirect, and induced expenditures (A) |
|
Scenario #1 |
Scenario #2 |
Scenario #3 |
Scenario #4 |
| Tourists |
25,000 |
40,000
|
60,000 |
100,000
|
| Percentage
of new/maintained tourists |
25% |
25% |
25% |
25% |
| Number
of new or maintained tourists |
6,250 |
10,000
|
15,000 |
25,000 |
| Total
expenditures per person per night (B) |
$44.86 |
$44.86 |
$44.86 |
$44.86 |
| Total
expenditures by new or maintained tourists |
$280,358
|
$448,572 |
$672,858
|
$1,121,430
|
| Total direct first-year expenditures |
|
| Total
expenditures by new or maintained tourists |
$280,358
|
$448,572 |
$672,858
|
$1,121,430
|
| Annual
expenditures by Red Lake Bog |
$192,000
|
$192,000
|
$192,000
|
$192,000
|
| Capital
expenditures by Red Lake Bog |
$3,950,000
|
$3,950,000
|
$3,950,000
|
$3,950,000
|
| TOTAL |
$4,422,358
|
$4,590,572 |
$4,814,858 |
$5,263,430
|
|
Total
ongoing annual direct expenditures
(excludes first year Red Lake Bog
capital expenditures)
|
$472,358
|
$640,572
|
$864,858
|
$1,313,430
|
|
| Total economic impact |
Includes direct, indirect, and induced effects of Red Lake Bog (A) |
|
Assumed Multiplier (C) |
Impact of new/maintained tourist expenditures
(Before Red Lake Bog annual budget and capital expenditures) |
|
|
|
| 1.3 |
$364,465 |
$583,144 |
$874,716 |
$1,457,859 |
| 1.5 |
$420,536 |
$672,858 |
$1,009,287 |
$1,682,145 |
| 1.8 |
$504,644 |
$807,430 |
$1,211,145 |
$2,018,575 |
| 2.1 |
$588,751 |
$942,001 |
$1,413,002 |
$2,355,004 |
Impact of new/maintained Tourist expenditures and
Red Lake Bog annual budget
(Before Red Lake Bog capital expenditures) |
| 1.3 |
614,065 |
832,744 |
1,124,316 |
1,707,459 |
| 1.5 |
708,536 |
960,858 |
1,297,287 |
1,970,145 |
| 1.8 |
850,244 |
1,153,030, |
1,556,745 |
2,364,175 |
| 2.1 |
991,951 |
1,345,201 |
1,816,202 |
2,758,204 |
Impact of Red Lake Bog capital expenditures
(This estimated impact would occur only during the first year.) |
| 1.3 |
5,135,000 |
5,135,000 |
5,135,000 |
5,135,000 |
| 1.5 |
5,925,000 |
5,925,000 |
5,925,000 |
5,925,000 |
| 1.7 |
6,715,000 |
6,715,000 |
6,715,000 |
6,715,000 |
| 2.1 |
8,295,000 |
8,295,000 |
8,295,000 |
8,295,000 |
A: Example of direct expenditure: a tourist buys
dinner. Example of indirect expenditure: a restaurant pays wages to its chef. Example of
induced expenditure: the chef buys clothes for his/her family.
B: The average length of stay as estimated by two studies: Tourism in the
Mississippi Headwaters Area, Phase II, Spring/Summer, 1998, p. 35, and Pleasure Traffic in
Minnesota--Regional Analysis, based on TravelScope Study, 1997, Travel Industry
Association.
C: The Minnesota Department of Tourism estimates the expenditure multiplier to be
2.1 times direct expenditures. However, the region is unlikely to take full advantage of
this effect. A lower multiplier is most likely to apply, as suggested by the table above.
A multiplier of 1.5 was used in the projections provided on page 21 of the study. |
Regional
Economic Impact/Jobs (estimated)
New
Employment/Jobs in Region Resulting From Economic Impact of the Red Lake Bog State Park
This includes direct, indirect , and induced effects, assumes 1.5 multiplier, and
relationship between gross receipts and employment (A) |
| Total gross
receipts from domestic travel in Minnesota (B |
$7,920,000,000
|
|
| Related employment
(B) |
142,500 |
| Gross receipts per
employee |
$55,579
|
|
Scenario
#1 |
Scenario
#2 |
Scenario
#3 |
Scenario
#4 |
| Total
Estimates |
25,000 |
40,000 |
60,000 |
100,000 |
Employment
impact of annual tourist expenditures
This estimate excludes the effect of any Red Lake Bog expenditures. |
| Gross expenditures
including direct, indirect, and induced (A) |
$420,536 |
$672,858 |
$1,009,287
|
$1,682,145
|
| Gross receipts per
employee in Minnesota |
$55,579
|
$55,579
|
$55,579
|
$55,579
|
| New or maintained
jobs in region |
7.6
|
12.1
|
18.2
|
30.3
|
Employment
impact of annual tourist expenditures & Red Lake Bog budget
(This estimate excludes the effect of Red Lake Bog capital expenditures.) |
| Gross expenditures
including direct, indirect, and induced (A) |
$708,536
|
$960,858
|
$1,297,287
|
$1,970,145 |
| Gross receipts per
employee in Minnesota |
$55,579
|
$55,579
|
$55,579
|
$55,579
|
| New or maintained
jobs in region |
12.7
|
17.3
|
23.3
|
35.4
|
Employment
impact of Red Lake Bog capital expenditures
This estimated impact will occur only during the first year. |
| Gross expenditures
including direct, indirect, and induced (A) |
$5,925,000 |
$5,925,000 |
$5,925,000 |
$5,925,000 |
| Gross receipts per
employee in Minnesota |
$55,579
|
$55,579
|
$55,579
|
$55,579
|
| Jobs related to
capital expenditures |
106.6 |
106.6 |
106.6 |
106.6 |
A:
Example of direct expenditure: a tourist buys dinner. Example of indirect expenditure: a
restaurant pays wages to its chef.
Example of induced expenditure: the chef buys clothes for his/her family.
B: Economic Impact Estimates: Domestic and International Travel in Minnesota,
Minnesota Trade & Economic Development Office of Tourism,
October, 1999, p. 3. |
Regional
Tourist: Based on Traffic (estimated)
Waskish
Traffic Estimates (1998) Highway 72
Based on intermittent counter south of Waskish adjusted based on Highway 71 seasonally |
| |
Waskish 2-Way Average Annual Daily Traffic(A) |
Hwy 71,
2-Way Annual Average/T.H. 71 Average Daily Traffic During Month(B) |
Waskish 2-Way Estimated Average Daily Traffic During
Month |
Waskish 2-Way Estimated Daily Non-Seasonal
Traffic During Month |
Waskish 2-Way Estimated Daily Seasonal Traffic
During Month |
Days In Month |
Waskish 2-Way Estimated Total Traffic |
Waskish 2-Way Estimated Seasonal Traffic |
| January |
600 |
1.21 |
496 |
460 |
36 |
31 |
15,372 |
1,112 |
| February |
600 |
1.16 |
517 |
460 |
57 |
28 |
14,483 |
1,603 |
| March |
600 |
1.19 |
504 |
460 |
44 |
31 |
15,630 |
1,370 |
| April |
600 |
1.09 |
550 |
460 |
90 |
30 |
16,514 |
2,714 |
| May |
600 |
0.99 |
606 |
460 |
146 |
31 |
18,788 |
4,528 |
| June |
600 |
0.88 |
682 |
460 |
222 |
30 |
20,455 |
6,655 |
| July |
600 |
0.82 |
732 |
460 |
272 |
31 |
22,683 |
8,423 |
| August |
600 |
0.84 |
714 |
460 |
254 |
31 |
22,143 |
7,883 |
| September |
600 |
0.89 |
674 |
460 |
214 |
30 |
20,225 |
6,425 |
| October |
600 |
0.94 |
638 |
460 |
178 |
31 |
19,787 |
5,527 |
| November |
600 |
1.05 |
571 |
460 |
111 |
30 |
17,143 |
3,343 |
| December |
600 |
1.16 |
517 |
460 |
57 |
31 |
16,034 |
1,774 |
| TOTAL |
|
|
|
|
|
365 |
219,256 |
51356 |
A: State
of Minnesota Trunk Highway Traffic Volume Map, 1998, Minnesota Department of
Transportation.
B: Source--Automatic Traffic Recorder Report 1998, Minnesota Department of
Transportation, p. 23. |
Northome
Traffic Estimates (1998) Highway 71
Using intermittent counter north of Northome adjusted for seasonally of continuous counter
north of Blackduck |
| |
2-Way Blackduck Average Daily Traffic During
Month(A) |
2-Way Blackduck Annual Average Daily Traffic During
Month |
2-Way Northome Estimated Average Daily Traffic
During Year (C) |
2-Way Northome Estimated Average Daily Traffic
During Month |
2-Way
Northome Estimated Daily Non-Seasonal Traffic During Month |
2-Way Northome Estimated Daily Seasonal Traffic
During Month |
Days In Month |
2-Way Northome Estimated Total Traffic |
2-Way Northome Estimated Seasonal Traffic |
| January |
913 |
1.21 |
770 |
636 |
600 |
36 |
31 |
19,705 |
1,105 |
| February |
957 |
1.16 |
770 |
666 |
600 |
66 |
28 |
18,655 |
1,855 |
| March |
932 |
1.19 |
770 |
649 |
600 |
49 |
31 |
20,115 |
1,515 |
| April |
1,011 |
1.09 |
770 |
704 |
600 |
104 |
30 |
21,116 |
3,116 |
| May |
1,114 |
0.99 |
770 |
776 |
600 |
176 |
31 |
24,043 |
5,443 |
| June |
1,253 |
0.88 |
770 |
872 |
600 |
272 |
30 |
26,170 |
8,170 |
| July |
1,348 |
0.82 |
770 |
938 |
600 |
338 |
31 |
29,093 |
10,493 |
| August |
1,323 |
0.84 |
770 |
921 |
600 |
321 |
31 |
28,553 |
9,953 |
| September |
1,237 |
0.89 |
770 |
861 |
600 |
261 |
30 |
25,836 |
7,836 |
| October |
1,172 |
0.94 |
770 |
816 |
600 |
216 |
31 |
25,294 |
6,694 |
| November |
1,054 |
1.05 |
770 |
734 |
600 |
134 |
30 |
22,014 |
4,014 |
| December |
952 |
1.16 |
770 |
663 |
660 |
63 |
31 |
23,870 |
1,946 |
| TOTAL |
1,106 (B) |
|
|
|
|
|
365 |
284,464 |
62,141 |
A:
Source: Automatic Traffic Recorder Report 1998, Minnesota Department of Transportation, p.
23.
B: Annual average daily traffic. Source--Automatic Traffic Recorder Report 1998,
Minnesota Department of Transportation, p. 23.
C: State of Minnesota Trunk Highway Traffic Volume Map, 1998, Minnesota Department
of Transportation |
Bemidji
Traffic Estimates (1998) Highway 2
Using continuous counter west of Bagley |
| |
2-Way Average Daily Traffic During Month (A) |
Estimated Heavy Truck Traffic (B) |
2-Way Average Daily Traffic During Month Excluding
Trucks |
2-Way Estimated Daily Non-Seasonal Traffic During
Month |
2-Way Estimated Daily Seasonal Traffic During Month |
Days In Month |
2-Way Estimated Total Traffic |
2-Way Estimated Seasonal Traffic |
| January |
2,681 |
500 |
2,181 |
2,100 |
81 |
31 |
67,611 |
2,511 |
| February |
2,901 |
500 |
2,401 |
2,100 |
301 |
28 |
67,228 |
8,428 |
| March |
2,924 |
500 |
2,424 |
2,100 |
324 |
31 |
75,144 |
10,044 |
| April |
3,285 |
500 |
2,785 |
2,100 |
685 |
30 |
83,550 |
20,550 |
| May |
3,770 |
500 |
3,270 |
2,100 |
1,170 |
31 |
101,370 |
36,270 |
| June |
4,204 |
500 |
3,704 |
2,100 |
1,604 |
30 |
111,120 |
48,120 |
| July |
4,978 |
500 |
4,478 |
2,100 |
2,378 |
31 |
138,818 |
73,718 |
| August |
4,712 |
500 |
4,212 |
2,100 |
2,112 |
31 |
130,572 |
65,472 |
| September |
4,120 |
500 |
3,620 |
2,100 |
1,520 |
30 |
108,600 |
45,600 |
| October |
3,963 |
500 |
3,463 |
2,100 |
1,363 |
31 |
107,353 |
42,253 |
| November |
3,119 |
500 |
2,619 |
2,100 |
519 |
30 |
7,8570 |
15,570 |
| December |
3,079 |
500 |
2,579 |
2,100 |
479 |
31 |
7,9949 |
14,849 |
| Total/Annual Average |
4,907 |
500 |
|
|
|
365 |
1,149,885 |
383,385 |
A:
Source — Automatic Traffic Recorder Report 1998, Minnesota
Department of Transportation, p. 23.
B: Estimated truck traffic from State of Minnesota Trunk Highway
Traffic Volume Map, 1998, MNDOT |
Regional
Tourists - Based on Lodging Sales Tax (estimated)
Method #1
and #2 Tourist Estimates Using Lodging Sales Tax
Based on Lodging Sales Tax Revenues in relation to Total Tourists |
| Lodging Revenues(A) |
Beltrami |
Cass |
Itasca |
Hubbard |
Koochiching |
Lake of the Woods |
Total Countries |
Total NC/NW |
Total State |
| 1989 Lodging Sales |
$ 4,801 |
$ 20,699 |
$ 8,011 |
$ 4,834 |
$ 5,719 |
$ 5,264 |
$ 49,328 |
$ 130,409 |
$ 703,783 |
| 1990 Lodging Sales |
5,426 |
21,583 |
9,940 |
5,332 |
7,070 |
6,758 |
56,109 |
136,742 |
699,786 |
| 1991 Lodging Sales |
6,226 |
22,394 |
10,317 |
5,737 |
5,926 |
6,527 |
57,127 |
142,980 |
762,331 |
| 1992 Lodging Sales |
6,583 |
13,464 |
9,784 |
6,220 |
9,368 |
6,202 |
51,621 |
151,396 |
826,203 |
| 1993 Lodging Sales |
7,709 |
14,010 |
10,348 |
7,007 |
8,925 |
6,723 |
54,722 |
170,703 |
877,973 |
| 1994 Lodging Sales |
7,959 |
14,646 |
11,070 |
7,514 |
6,152 |
5,369 |
52,710 |
175,719 |
961,759 |
| 1995 Lodging Sales |
8,425 |
15,130 |
12,045 |
7,002 |
7,307 |
5,905 |
55,814 |
179,024 |
1,001,353 |
| Total Lodging Sales |
47,129 |
121,926 |
71,515 |
43,646 |
50,467 |
42,748 |
337,431 |
1,086,972 |
5,833,188 |
| |
| Mean Annual Lodging Sales (1989-1995) |
| |
6,733 |
17,418 |
10,216 |
6,235 |
7,210 |
6,107 |
53,919 |
155,282 |
833,313 |
| % Total Lodging Sales |
0.81% |
2.09% |
1.23% |
0.75% |
0.87% |
0.73% |
6.47% |
18.63% |
100.00% |
| Number of Tourists Based on % Total Lodging Sales |
Method #1
Total Tourists |
147,046 |
380,419 |
223,132 |
136,179 |
157,461 |
133,377 |
1,177,614 |
3,391,437 |
18,200,000 |
| Tourist
Estimate Based on Lodging Sales Tax Revenues in relation to estimated lodging cost,
average stay,
non-lodgers, and non-pleasure travelers |
| Tourist Dollars as a % of total Travel Dollars |
70.0% |
70.0% |
70.0% |
70.0% |
70.0% |
70.0% |
70.0% |
70.0% |
| Tourist Lodging Sales |
4,713 |
12,193 |
7,152 |
4,365 |
5,047 |
4,275 |
37,743 |
108,697 |
Lodging Expenditures
Per Person/
Per Night (B) |
$22.62 |
$22.62 |
$22.62 |
$22.62 |
$22.62 |
$22.62 |
$22.62 |
$22.62 |
| Lodging Tourists % Totals |
50.0% |
50.0% |
50.0% |
50.0% |
50.0% |
50.0% |
50.0% |
50.0% |
Lodging
Expenditures per Person per Night
Excluding Estimated Non-Lodging Tourists |
| |
$45.24 |
$45.24 |
$45.24 |
$45.24 |
$45.24 |
$45.24 |
$45.24 |
$45.24 |
| Lodging Tourist Nights |
104,176 |
269,509 |
158,079 |
96,477 |
111,554 |
94,492 |
834,286 |
2,402,679 |
| Lodging Nights Per Trip(C) |
3.20 |
3.20 |
3.20 |
3.20 |
3.20 |
3.20 |
3.20 |
3.20 |
| Lodging Tourist |
32,555 |
84,222 |
49,400 |
30,149 |
34,861 |
29,529 |
260,714 |
750,837 |
| Non-Lodging Tourist |
32,555 |
84,222 |
49,400 |
30,149 |
34,861 |
29,529 |
260,714 |
750,837 |
Method #2
total Tourists |
65,110 |
168,443 |
98,799 |
60,298 |
69,721 |
59,057 |
521,429 |
1,501,674 |
Note A:
Source--Travel and Tourism Statistics for Minnesota's Tourism Regions,
Northeast and North central/Northwest Counties, October, 1997,
Minnesota Department of Tourism.
Note B: Source--Tourism in the Mississippi Headwaters Area, Phase
II, Spring/Summer, 1998, Headwaters Regional Development Commission,
p.35.
Note C: Source--Pleasure Travel In Minnesota--Regional Analysis,
Minnesota Department of Tourism, based on TravelScope Survey, 1997,
Travel Industry Association, and Tourism in the Mississippi Headwaters
Area, Phase II, Spring/Summer, 1998, Headwaters Regional Commission.
The nights per trip from each study were averaged. |
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